Inflation drops to 6.4% — industry reacts

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 6.8% in the 12 months to July 2023, down from 7.9% in June.

Summary

On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.4% in July 2023 compared with a rise of 0.6% in July 2022.

The CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose to 6.4% compared to 7.3% in June.

According to ONS data, falling gas and electricity prices provided the largest downward contribution to the monthly change in CPIH and CPI annual rates.

Food prices rose in July 2023 but by less than in July 2022, also leading to an easing in the rates. 

Meanwhile, the latest House Price Index (HPI) data — released in tandem with the inflation figures — showed that UK average house prices rose by 1.7% in the year to June 2023.

Average house prices came in at £288,000 in June, which is £5,000 higher than a year ago, but £5,000 below the recent peak in November 2022. 

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Inflation drops to 6.4% — industry reacts

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 6.8% in the 12 months to July 2023, down from 7.9% in June.
Over 2 years ago

“For real estate professionals, the current phase could be an opportune time to explore new possibilities"

Emma Cox, MD of real estate at Shawbrook:

“A modest increase in house prices sees the market yet again defying expectations in the face of fluctuating rates, and a slowdown in activity.

“For real estate professionals, the current phase could be an opportune time to explore new possibilities.

 "With the property market overall less busy, a reduction in competition from owner occupiers will create a favourable environment for landlords to consider expanding portfolios.

“With a robust demand in the rental market, landlords might consider diversifying into higher-yield options like HMOs, which could in turn contribute to an increase in available properties for rent.”

Over 2 years ago

"I can’t see the BoE slowing down their plans to keep this downward trend"

Sam Norris, MD at Grand Union Finance:

“As much as the figures are obviously positive, I can’t see the BoE slowing down their plans to keep this downward trend but continuing the raise the base rate.

“5.75% by the end of this year is still highly likely, and this is looking like it will create a new ‘temporary normal’ in the mortgage world, which will not be good news for vendors and estate agents as this should keep demand for property low, and lead to a reduction in prices.

“However, we do look like we are on track for that sub-5% inflation figure by the end of the year that Rishi Sunak pledged, so I would like to think if this is achieved, base rate reductions could follow in Q2 2024.”

Over 2 years ago

“I strongly suspect that Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be claiming that 'their plan' is working and hoping it bodes well at the next general election”

Craig Fish, director at Lodestone Mortgages & Protection:

“This news will hopefully act like a calming pill for mortgage lenders, but core inflation remains sticky and as a result, I expect the BoE to increase rates at their next meeting and for lenders to now hold steady.

“I strongly suspect that Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be claiming that 'their plan' is working and hoping it bodes well at the next general election."

 

Summary

On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.4% in July 2023 compared with a rise of 0.6% in July 2022.

The CPI including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose to 6.4% compared to 7.3% in June.

According to ONS data, falling gas and electricity prices provided the largest downward contribution to the monthly change in CPIH and CPI annual rates.

Food prices rose in July 2023 but by less than in July 2022, also leading to an easing in the rates. 

Meanwhile, the latest House Price Index (HPI) data — released in tandem with the inflation figures — showed that UK average house prices rose by 1.7% in the year to June 2023.

Average house prices came in at £288,000 in June, which is £5,000 higher than a year ago, but £5,000 below the recent peak in November 2022. 

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